A Twitter poll run earlier in the week on whether the price of Bitcoin (BTC) had bottomed out has raised plenty of conversation among cryptocurrency communities. The results of the poll revealed that 41% of people think BTC price is currently at its bottom while 32% said the bottom will be $2,800, 15% said it will be $1,500, and 12% believe the bottom will be found below $1,000. While this only represents a section of the crypto community, the debate on the actual bottom price of BTC is splitting the investors in two: Has it or hasn’t it bottomed?
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The crazy cryptocurrency ride in 2018
Since the start of the second quarter of 2017, the world of cryptocurrencies has come to light to the rest of the world as prices steadily rose till Q1 2018. The industry exploded in prices at the end of 2017 and start of 2018 as the crypto craze spread like a wildfire among novice and expert investors as well. Some bought cryptocurrencies as a hedge to other risks while others saw this as an opportunity to make sublime gains. However, the market soon burst as prices fell from all-time highs to wipe off all the yearly gains on most cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin (BTC), the pioneer cryptocurrency, faced a backlash from critics during the bear run in 2018. Currently trading at $3,627.67 USD, after a short bullish momentum in the past few days, investors are optimistic on the future price of the top coin. Is the bearish momentum finally reversing or is the market showing a false bottom?
We explain in detail the history of Bitcoin’s price, the current technical analysis and whether BTC has reached its bottom.
Explain Bitcoin price history
Bitcoin is celebrating its 10th anniversary since the release of the Satoshi whitepaper in January 2009. Although the technical developments witnessed on Bitcoin are massive, the price is the golden goose in marketing the cryptocurrency.
Priced less than a dollar at time of launch, BTC has seen its price skyrocket to over $20,000 USD in a couple of years. Since the resurgence of BTC’s price above the $1,000 USD mark in early 2017, the coin crossed the various milestones to hit $20,000 USD in 10 months.
The crypto winter started off in mid-January 2018 and it has been quite a “hell” since as BTC lost over 80% of its value to trade below $4,000 USD today.
The recent fall and rise of Bitcoin’s price has caused massive debates within the communities and among the experts in the crypto field. Vinny Lingham, the CEO and founder of Civic cryptocurrency, is one of the many to offer their opinion on the matter.
Vinny predicts the market to push the price of Bitcoin towards the $3,000 USD mark in the upcoming months before a bullish momentum ensues. The serial entrepreneur and a shark in South Africa’s Shark Tank said,
“I think there is a good chance we’re going to retest $3,000 as a low. There is a good chance we’ll probably break through that if it heads that low. Sideways trade doesn’t really help us because at this point in time we have more sellers than buyers – people trying to get out from ICOs etc. and that’s a problem. There’s no real momentum into the crypto market right now.”
In a similar tone to Vinny, Willy Woo, Woobull.com creator, cautions against having too much optimism on BTC’s price to rise in the short term. He predicts the price of Bitcoin is yet to reach its bottom as on chain volume volatility is still pretty high similar to the volatility experienced during the crypto winter period. He wrote on Twitter in January saying,
“Is the bottom in? Not yet. In order for the bottom to be in, the volume of coins changing hands becomes steady, currently it’s very erratic, synonymous with middle of the bear detox.”
Other analysts in the field predict that BTC has hit its bottom already and a bull run is just around the corner. Others see the price ranging between $3k and $5k in the near future as the market consolidates further.
Renato Shirakashi, a cryptocurrency and blockchain writer, believes the price has bottomed out. The writer has different opinions from Vinny and Woo as he believes BTC price is set to last in its current range as the definitive bottom has already been hit. Renato’s Medium post titled, “Bitcoin bottom is in”, offers a clear technical explanation on why the bottom of bitcoin is in!
The piece focuses on three functions of Bitcoin; the realized value, the market to realized value ratio and the NTV ratio as key indicators.
“The fact that I’m arguing that Bitcoin has reached its bottom doesn’t mean I think that it’s going straight up. In fact, I believe that we will be in a 3k~5k range for relatively long time, as demand starts to build up again (or some big event happens meanwhile). There will be a series of little tests the market will make to confirm this is a safe place.” – Renato Shirakashi on “Bitcoin bottom is in”
The price of bitcoin has had a volatile run in the past hence the difficulty in predicting the future price of the grand cryptocurrency. The discussions on whether Bitcoin’s price has hit rock bottom will continue in the coming weeks as the market takes shape. One factor that the community is agreeing on is the eventual change in fortunes for BTC after “bottom” is reached.
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